Subsurface uncertainty, one of the biggest challenges to oil and gas developments and yet one key aspect still neglected in subsurface studies. Reasons are multiple:


  • Complexity of characterization workflows (for single deterministic scenarios).
  • Time spent in charaterisation and reservoir simulation (from geomodelling up to history matching).
  • Statistical analysis techniques suitable to the problem.
  • Cognitive biases.

In recent study performed by Primera Reservoir we found that just over 50% of the participants had a high perception of probabilistic workflows with just above 30% had a mid-value perception and 15% regarded them as having some value.



Our interpretation from a recent survey conducted in conjuncion with Portsmouth University, is that the industry is steadily adopting stochastic workflows, that the value of such are easily perceived once executed and that still more efforts are needed. This survey was conducted in collaboration with a Portsmouth university project, where's we asked a pool of our contacts working in operators, service and consultancy companies about the need and uptake of uncertainty analysis and probabilistic workflows, a couple of images below summarises part of our findings:


Here at Primera Reservoir we support the decision making process by means of integrating uncertainty and risk analysis to subsurface studies, as a result we build reliability over the impact of each related parameters on the decision outcome. We accomplish this be setting up sensitivity and uncertainty analysis workflows using commercial and in-house developed tools by means of uncertainty propagation analysis, experimental design, sampling, regression modelling and proxy generation.



Value over Volume

We create fit for purpose models to ensure project viability, keeping a focus on the results and objectives by means of applying the following workflows:


  • Screening of geological realizations.
  • Assisted history matching with an ensemble approach.
  • Sensitivity analysis.
  • Partial or Full stochastic workflows from geomodelling unto economics
  • Techno-economical uncertainty analysis

Why us?

We like what we do and are passionate about improving our services and solutions in stochastic decision making. We aim to deliver time and cost efficient projects by:


  • Maximising the use of your current license pool.
  • Using our in-house state of the art applications.
  • Customizing the results and reports to your needs and not to the applications capabilities.

We are a group of oil and gas industry professionals with tracked record in services, consultancy and operations. Our team is fully trained in statistical learning techniques applied to stochastic workflows and as a result can mitigate surface and subsurface uncertainties around static and dynamic reservoir models hence providing an accurate platform to predict future reservoir performance. We have suffered the pain of deterministic and stochastic workflows in previous projects and we can contribute with the lessons that we have learnt.



Processes where we can contribute:


  • Field development planning: appraise, concept and definition stages.
  • Reserves and Resources quantification
  • OOIP probabilistic
  • History matching bearing in mind all the reservoir monitoring information available
  • Infill drilling and intervention campaigns
  • Reservoir management strategies